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Revival in the real economy, regional attractiveness improving

As was earlier intimated by the pickup in FMCG sales at the beginning of the current fiscal year, revival in the real economy is now gaining momentum. As per the latest data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Large Scale Manufacturing has exhibited 7.5%YoY growth in Jan’10, the highest rate of growth since Jan’08. This takes 7MFY10 LSM growth to 2.34%YoY. In our view, improvement in rural incomes and in-turn greater consumer demand explains LSM growth which has been led by agro based industries, consumer goods and transport (Please see table below). If this trend continues – amid Government’s priority towards the power sector coupled with stable interest rates – it should provide impetus to overall real GDP growth in FY10 especially when agricultural growth is likely to post 3%+ growth this year. Therefore, we think that the probability of real GDP growth exceeding the GoP target of 3.3% in FY10 is rising.       

 AKD Research
March 17 2010

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