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Fertilizer sector monthly update

Fertilizer numbers for the month of Apr’10 have been released by the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC). Cumulative urea offtake in 4MCY10 stood at 1.87mn tons compared to offtake of 1.96mn tons in 4MCY09 – a decline of 4.9%YoY. Cumulative 4MCY10 DAP sales also posted a decline of about 5.0%YoY, with DAP sales falling to 226.5k tons in 4MCY10 compared to 238.4k tons during the corresponding period last year. Currently, DAP prices in the local market stand at PkR2,550-PkR2,600 per bag while urea prices stand at PkR855-PkR880 per bag (ex-factory) for the various manufacturers after having been increased last month due to gas curtailment. At current levels, we remain ‘Overweight’ on the Fertilizer Sector with Engro and FFC our top picks. In particular, we note that the presence of the two companies (along with Fatima Fertilizer) on the Mari network makes them a relatively safer bet than other fertilizer manufacturers.            

AKD Research
1 June 2010

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