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NBP: Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways

NBP held its inaugural analyst briefing on March 8th, chaired by Chairman & CEO Mr. Ali Raza. Points of discussion included a review of CY09 performance and outlook for both the banking sector in general, and for NBP in particular. In this regard, NBP management believes that while the ongoing year will likely be challenging (in that the absolute quantum of systemic provisions may remain flat YoY) the overall macroeconomic environment is set to be more upbeat over the next 2-3 years. While we concur that the worst is certainly behind us, we believe existing economic challenges still merit a relatively cautious stance. Regarding NBP, we believe that the positives have largely been captured by the recent runup in stock price (up 25%CYTD) with risks more likely to come to the forefront in CY10F. At current levels, NBP trades at a CY10F Total Equity P/B of 0.76x and offers an upside of 8.9% to our target price of PkR101.3/share.

AKD Research
March 9 2010

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